Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Arkansas +7

The Arkansas Razorbacks have lost consecutive one-score games, and I think this is do or die for them Saturday against Texas A&M as a result.  They don't want to open 0-2 in SEC play, especially with road games at Ole Miss and at Alabama looming after this.

Arkansas had a misleading 31-38 loss to BYU two weeks ago in which they outgained the Cougars by 143 yards.  They held BYU to 281 total yards, yet somehow gave up 38 points.  Then last week they put forth one of the most impressive performances of the season, only losing 31-34 at LSU as 18-point underdogs in Baton Rouge.

That effort against LSU shows what the Razorbacks are capable of.  Now there's a good chance they get RB Raheim Sanders back from injury after missing the past three games.  He rushed for 1,443 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 per carry last season and has been out since scoring two touchdowns in the opener.  Star QB KJ Jefferson would welcome back another big playmaker to this offense this week.

Speaking of injuries, Texas A&M could be without QB Conner Weigman, who exited last game against Auburn with an ankle injury and did not return.  Backup Max Johnson would be a pretty big downgrade if that's the case.  But I like Arkansas' chances of keeping this a one-score game and possibly pulling off the upset either way.

Texas A&M has three home wins against a very soft schedule of New Mexico, UL Monroe and a rebuilding Auburn team to pad their stats thus far.  When they stepped up in class in their lone road game, they got blasted 48-33 at Miami.  No question the Aggies are improved after going 5-7 last year, which isn't saying much.  But Jimbo Fisher is just having a tough time getting his players to live up to the hype of these great recruiting classes.

This has been a very closely-contested series.  Each of the last six meetings were decided by 11 points or fewer.  Texas A&M has been favored in all six, going just 2-4 ATS.  Eleven of the last 13 meetings were decided by 12 points or fewer, including eight by 7 points or less.  There's a good chance this one is decided by a single score as well, thus there's value in backing the Razorbacks at +7.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

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